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January 11, 2019

Asset Allocation Quarterly

Central banks induce regime shifts

October 10, 2018

Asset Allocation Quarterly

So far so good, but markets underestimate risks

September 10, 2018

Asset allocation – September 2018

SUMMARY: US equities continued to outperform other markets such as EMU and EM equities. This partly reflects the divergence between the US economy -which is supported by fiscal expansion and a patient Federal Reserve- and relatively weaker growth in the eurozone and EM. But there is more to this divergence than faster US economic growth. The US equity rally has been led by the IT sector. This has accounted for 20%-50% of US equity returns since 2016. The rally is now looking stretched on various metrics. The other salient development in August was renewed stress in emerging markets (EM). A combination of economic stress in Turkey, weaker growth in China, Sino-US trade tensions and a stronger US dollar hurt EM assets. We believe there is value in EM assets, but the obvious circuit-breakers are still absent: a weaker USD, aggressive China stimulus and fresh Sino-US trade talks. EM assets prospects have soured and protectionism and tighter liquidity continue to cloud their longer-term prospects.

July 11, 2018

Asset allocation quarterly – July 2018

Foreseeing calmer markets over the next few months, we have identified several reversal themes

June 27, 2018

Asset allocation flash – 25 June 2018

SUMMARY: Despite trade tensions, concerns about global growth and more volatile markets than in 2017, our base case scenario remains one of robust global growth and contained inflation. This underpins our bullish view on equities, with a preference for eurozone equities where we see positive earnings growth prospects and room for margin expansion

June 8, 2018

Asset allocation – June 2018

Three stocks hit markets: (i) an escalation of political risk, (ii) weakening growth (notably in Europe); and (iii) a stronger USD, which led to stress in emerging markets In Italy, market worries about fiscal excesses and the prospect of a clash between the new government and European authorities escalated. As a result, ‘peripheral’ eurozone debt sold off. Italian markets are likely to remain volatile in coming months as investors digest further news on political developments and economic data There are signs of a growth slowdown, notably in the eurozone, according to recent data. However, we find it difficult to call a turn in the economic cycle yet. While the data have weakened, activity is still expanding both in the developed world and emerging markets Emerging market stress was largely a consequence of higher US yields and USD strength. In our view, local debt offers value and currently lower US yields are reassuring, but we need to see the USD and global risk sentiment stabilise for EM debt to rally materially

May 4, 2018

Asset allocation – May 2018

SUMMARY: As in February, US Treasury yields rose to the point where they ended up rocking markets, but this time the disruption was more visible in the US dollar and emerging markets than in equity markets / We see several factors for the rise: (i) US inflation and crude oil prices hit 2018 highs in April, (ii) US macroeconomic data have been robust enough for the US Federal Reserve to continue normalising its interest-rate policy, and (iii) rates markets have become more concerned about US Treasury debt issuance / The bar is quite high for further interest-rate increases in the near term, but when policy tightening does resume, we think this will not keep equity markets from rallying as long as the growth backdrop remains solid / The stronger USD reflects disappointing economic activity data in the G10 and emerging markets compared to the US. This is consistent with markets pricing in reduced expectations of central bank policy normalisation in Europe and Japan / Further USD strength is possible, but we doubt it can persist in the medium term unless the prospects for growth in the US continue to decouple from those for the rest of the world

April 10, 2018

Asset allocation quarterly – April 2018

Concerns over inflation, less central bank accommodation / trade protectionism escalates / activity data disappoints / reducing equity exposure, macro view unchanged / adding to EMU duration underweight

March 7, 2018

Asset allocation – March 2018

SUMMARY: Market review: the rebound in risky assets is ongoing, but prices are still below the pre-correction highs / Should we worry about inflation? We see a modest pick-up rather than a take-off / Can equities perform in a rising rate environment? Yes, but typically driven by strengthening earnings growth / Which safe assets can offer protection in Fed tightening cycles? No silver bullet; bonds may not offer shelter

February 13, 2018

Asset allocation – February 2018

SUMMARY: Global equities sold off aggressively as higher bond yields finally dented the strong January risk rally / The sell-off was triggered by strong hourly earnings data in the US, but its magnitude appears to be exacerbated by market technicals / Solid growth fundamentals and limited contagion from the equity volatility to other markets such as rates, currencies and emerging markets (EM) are consistent with a technical dislocation in markets

January 22, 2018

Asset allocation – Q4 2017 – 19 January 2018

SUMMARY: Over the fourth quarter, economic developments continued to be positive.

December 19, 2017

Asset allocation – December 2017

SUMMARY: US and Japan led the equity rally in November; Europe and EM lagged / Cyclical momentum persists in the eurozone and in the US / Inflation remains subdued in the developed world / EU and UK agree Brexit terms, but GBP could remain under pressure

November 21, 2017

Asset allocation – November 2017

SUMMARY : Upbeat market in October, led by Japanese equities / ECB asset purchase ‘recalibration’: still accommodative / EM: renewed idiosyncratic risks?

October 17, 2017

Asset allocation – October 2017

SUMMARY Market summary: equitier climb higher in low-vol environment Crude market outlook - the new oïl era Asset allocation: long EM versus DM

September 18, 2017

Asset Allocation September 2017

SUMMARY • Risk assets: under the weather • Upbeat global growth • Asset allocation: back to underweight duration, still bearish on euro versus US dollar

July 18, 2017

Asset Allocation July 2017

SUMMARY • Inflation continues to disappoint • Are central banks debating a change in their reaction functions? • Bond markets are becoming unsettled

June 13, 2017

Asset Allocation June 2017

SUMMARY • Inflation disappoints, but central banks carry on • Is growth becoming more domestic? • Now closed: underweight in developed equities • Overweight real estate rotated from Europe to US

May 17, 2017

Asset Allocation May 2017

SUMMARY • Macron victory was mostly discounted • Some growth indicators rolling over • Concerns about China return • Now underweight UK vs eurozone equities

April 12, 2017

Asset Allocation April 2017

SUMMARY • Descrepancy between more bullish soft data and modest hard data continues • Fed and ECB can shrug off inflation pressures • Strength in riks assets looks set to fade • Now overweight emerging market debt in local currency, commodity underweight closed

March 14, 2017

Asset Allocation March 2017

SUMMARY • Markets are ignoring political uncertainty • Global economy may struggle to live up to positive leading indicators • High earnings expectations • Overweight European real estate; duration exposure reduced

February 3, 2017

Asset Allocation February 2017

SUMMARY • Markets digest policy uncertainty in the US • Monetary tapering in 2017? • Now underweight US high-yield

January 12, 2017

Asset Allocation January 2017

SUMMARY ASSET ALLOCATION • Stronger growth and inflation… • but no need for central banks to react quickly • Equity markets have risen too quickly

December 13, 2016

Asset Allocation December 2016

SUMMARY ASSET ALLOCATION • Poltical events dominate • Growth momentum improves • Selectively reduced equity underweight

November 14, 2016

Asset Allocation November 2016

SUMMARY ASSET ALLOCATION Leading indicators improve, growth concerns remain Monetary policy changing course? Interest –rate concerns hit equities

October 11, 2016

Asset Allocation October 2016

SUMMARY ASSET ALLOCATION Growth improves, but not strong Fed to hike in December, gradual in 2017 Bank of Japan will target 0% ten-year yield Asset allocation: limited upside for oil prices

September 7, 2016

Asset Allocation september 2016

● Will low market volatility last? ● Debate about rate hikes in the US takes new twist ● Other major central banks still easing ● Asset allocation: underweight equities with a hedge

July 8, 2016

Asset Allocation July 2016

● Risk assets quickly rebound after UK referendum ● Safe havens have remained in demand ● UK referendum a regional shock… ● … with global implications for monetary policy ● Challenging investment climate

June 3, 2016

Asset Allocation June 2016

● Growth in developed economies set to converge ● Bank of Japan does not give in to expectations ● We prefer US and Japanese equities over Europe ● Overweight in US credit now closed

May 4, 2016

Asset Allocation May 2016

SUMMARY INVESTMENT CLIMATE ● Growth in developed economies set to converge ● Bank of Japan does not give in to expectations ● We prefer US and Japanese equities over Europe ● Overweight in US credit now closed

April 6, 2016

Asset Allocation April 2016

Summary investment climate: ● US no recession but modest growth ● No decisive rebound in manufacturing yet ● ECB and Fed more dovish ● Markets may be complacent

March 8, 2016

Asset allocation March 2016

Summary investment climate: ● Services PMIs converge with weak manufacturing ● US: low growth but no recession ● Will China reach its lower growth target? ● Tough climate for risky assets

December 3, 2015

Asset Allocation Monthly – December 2015

Summary investment climate ● ECB and the Fed ready to move ● Chinese renminbi IMF SDR basket ● Asset allocation de-risked

November 4, 2015

Asset Allocation Monthly – November 2015

Summary investment climate ● ECB gives strong hints for policy action in December ● Fed plots course for rate hike before year-end ● Is the market rebound sustainable?

March 9, 2018

US inflation on a rising trend

Our outlook for US inflation and growth has brightened considerably since the start of 2018, so we have lifted our targets for both US Treasury yields and TIPS-based breakeven inflation rates. Here, we review the factors we see as contributing to the rise in US inflation and we look at the potential monetary policy response from the Federal Reserve (Fed).

February 7, 2018

Chronicle of an equity market correction foretold

Flash note on the sell-off and implications for equity allocations

January 26, 2018

The tide is still rising in global stock markets

Why is volatility so low?

December 13, 2017

Central bankers to go easy on any upsets

Equities to benefit from growth, still-low interest rates

November 30, 2017

‘Goldilocks’ economic conditions continue to sustain risky assets

US and eurozone PMIs underscore growth prospects; UK odd one out

November 8, 2017

Equities advance amid US tax plan grumbles, UK rate policy ‘mistake’

Volatility keeps its cool in news-filled week

November 2, 2017

Continuity bests ruckus, setting equities up for October gains

Converging Australian and US yields spark profit-taking

October 26, 2017

Stimulus hopes let the sun shine on US and Japanese equities…

…but clouds have appeared over US small caps

October 19, 2017

Markets steer clear of getting into a tangle, allowing Goldilocks to prevail

IBEX/MIB trade trimmed amid Catalonia uncertainty

October 11, 2017

Growth, reforms and change at the Fed’s helm could propel US dollar

Sterling in limbo amid data and political wobbles

October 4, 2017

US tax plans steal the limelight from politics and central banking

Strategy: now long US small caps versus large caps

September 27, 2017

Plenty of events, but markets maintain autumnal calm

Central bankers stick to telegraphed paths

September 20, 2017

Risk on despite more synchronous central bank tone

Closing short UK versus eurozone equities

September 14, 2017

Havens in demand as a raft of concerns makes waves

Dovish central banker tones add to pressure on yields

September 6, 2017

Weak inflation: a transatlantic concern and monetary policy factor

Strategy: remaining bearish on the euro

August 2, 2017

US dollar – set to fall further or ready for a rebound?

Asset allocation: Underweight in EM dollar debt closed

July 27, 2017

Euro strengthens on implied change in monetary policy stance

Asset allocation: no major change

July 19, 2017

Seen as more dovish, Janet Yellen shifts focus to below-target inflation

European equities favoured despite euro strength

July 12, 2017

Are central banks starting to sing from the same sheet?

Recent bond sell-off looks overdone

July 5, 2017

Are the hawks now eyeing soaring asset prices?

Central banks move to centre stage; equities lose momentum

June 28, 2017

Growth throttles down, in line with inflation and inflation expectations

For yields: emerging market debt in local currency and US real estate

June 28, 2017

Growth throttles down, in line with inflation and inflation expectations

For yields: emerging market debt in local currency and US real estate

June 21, 2017

Equities resilient as poorer data mitigates looming QE end

Is this as hawkish as central banks will get?

June 14, 2017

Equities are grinding higher and higher, although momentum has flagged

Closing our equity underweight (but not in the UK)

May 24, 2017

Not quite gone after all: spikes in market volatility

Not all dips are equal… or create buying opportunities

May 17, 2017

It is onwards and sideways – for now!

Asset allocation holds steady amid lack of triggers

May 17, 2017

It is onwards and sideways – for now!

Asset allocation holds steady amid lack of triggers

May 10, 2017

Data points to further eurozone strength, US rebound, emerging market breather

Strategy: now overweight emerging market local currency debt

April 26, 2017

Political news to the fore; meanwhile, economic data is positive, on balance

Strategy: now underweight UK equities to European equities

April 12, 2017

Markets have plenty to discuss, but act on little

Strategy: now overweight local currency emerging market debt

April 5, 2017

After a generally positive quarter, time for a reality check?

Is the Fed getting ready for the next step in unwinding loose policy?

April 5, 2017

After a generally positive quarter, time for a reality check?

Is the Fed getting ready for the next step in unwinding loose policy?

March 29, 2017

Punctured healthcare initiative takes air out of reflation trade

Strategy: doubts grow about ambitious US stimulus plans

Actualização de Alocação de Ativos

Guillermo Felices, Senior Market Strategist da equipa Multi Asset Solutions revê os principais acontecimentos das últimas quatro semanas e discute o impacto dos mesmos na alocação de ativos.

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